2015 Canarian regional election

2015 Canarian regional election
24 May 2015
All 60 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,661,272 Increase 5.1%
Turnout931,876 (56.1%)
Decrease 2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Fernando Clavijo Patricia Hernández Australia Navarro
Party CCa–PNC PSOE PP
Leader since 12 September 2014 19 October 2014 6 March 2015
Leader's seat Tenerife Tenerife Gran Canaria
Last election 21 seats, 24.9% 15 seats, 21.0% 21 seats, 31.9%
Seats won 18 15 12
Seat change Decrease 3 Steady 0 Decrease 9
Popular vote 166,979 182,006 170,129
Percentage 18.2% 19.9% 18.6%
Swing Decrease 6.7 pp Decrease 1.1 pp Decrease 13.3 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Noemí Santana Román Rodríguez Casimiro Curbelo
Party Podemos NCa ASG
Leader since 1 April 2015 26 February 2005 6 March 2015
Leader's seat Gran Canaria Gran Canaria La Gomera
Last election Did not contest 2 seats, 8.4% Did not contest
Seats won 7 5 3
Seat change Increase 7 Increase 3 Increase 3
Popular vote 133,044 93,634 5,090
Percentage 14.5% 10.2% 0.6%
Swing New party Increase 1.8 pp New party
Constituency results map for the Parliament of the Canary Islands
President before election

Paulino Rivero
CCa

Elected President

Fernando Clavijo
CCa

A regional election was held in the Canary Islands on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 60 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview

Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of the Canary Islands was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]

Date

The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canaries (BOC).[3] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 24 May 2015.

The Parliament of the Canary Islands could not be dissolved before the expiration date of parliament, except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a snap election called, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[4]

The election to the Parliament of the Canary Islands was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOC, setting election day for 24 May.[5]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[6] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[7][8]

The Parliament of the Canary Islands had a minimum of 50 and a maximum of 70 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 60. All were elected in seven multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a 30 percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they reached six percent regionally.[9]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[10]

Seats Constituencies
15 Gran Canaria, Tenerife
8 La Palma, Lanzarote
7 Fuerteventura
4 La Gomera
3 El Hierro

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[11]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[12] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[13]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
  • People's Party (PP)
Australia Navarro Conservatism
Christian democracy 		31.9% 21 No [14]
CCa–PNC
List
  • Canarian Coalition (CCa)
  • Canarian Nationalist Party (PNC)
  • Independent Herrenian Group (AHI)
Fernando Clavijo Regionalism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism 		24.9% 21 Yes [15]
PSOE
List
  • Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
Patricia Hernández Social democracy 21.0% 15 Yes [16]
NCa
List
  • New Canaries (NCa)
  • Independents of Fuerteventura (IF)
  • For Tenerife (XTF)
  • Gomeran Democratic Alternative (ADGomera)
Román Rodríguez Canarian nationalism
Social democracy 		9.1% 3 No [17]
[18]
[19]
Podemos
List
 Noemí Santana Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		Did not contest No [20]
C's
List
 Melisa Rodríguez Liberalism Did not contest No [21]
ASG
List
  • Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)
Casimiro Curbelo Insularism
Social democracy 		Did not contest No [22]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 31 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Canary Islands.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of the Canary Islands election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 182,006 19.89 −1.09 15 ±0
People's Party (PP) 170,129 18.59 −13.35 12 −9
Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party (CCa–PNC) 166,979 18.25 −6.69 18 −3
We Can (Podemos) 133,044 14.54 New 7 +7
New Canaries (NCa) 93,634 10.23 +1.81 5 +3
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 54,375 5.94 New 0 ±0
United (Unidos)1 32,868 3.59 +1.66 0 −1
Canaries Decides (IUC–LV–UP–ALTER)2 20,155 2.20 −0.76 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 11,296 1.23 +0.93 0 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 7,819 0.85 −0.15 0 ±0
Canarian Nationalist Alternative (ANC) 5,635 0.62 −0.12 0 ±0
Gomera Socialist Group (ASG) 5,090 0.56 New 3 +3
More for Telde (+xT) 3,390 0.37 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPC) 1,861 0.20 −0.06 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,827 0.20 +0.04 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 1,814 0.20 New 0 ±0
Movement for the Unity of the Canarian People (MUPC) 1,777 0.19 +0.05 0 ±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 1,498 0.16 New 0 ±0
Municipal Assemblies of Fuerteventura (AMF) 1,447 0.16 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 1,363 0.15 New 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 330 0.04 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 16,769 1.83 −0.93
Total 915,106 60 ±0
Valid votes 915,106 98.20 +0.89
Invalid votes 16,770 1.80 −0.89
Votes cast / turnout 931,876 56.09 −2.82
Abstentions 729,396 43.91 +2.82
Registered voters 1,661,272
Sources[23][24]
Footnotes:
  • 1 United results are compared to the combined totals of Commitment to Gran Canaria, Lanzarote Independents–New Canaries–Nationalist Party and Majorero Progressive Party in the 2011 election.
  • 2 Canaries Decides results are compared to the combined totals of The Greens, Canarian United Left and Unity of the People in the 2011 election.
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 19.89%
PP
 
 18.59%
CCa–PNC
 
 18.25%
Podemos
 
 14.54%
NCa
 
 10.23%
C's
 
 5.94%
Unidos
 
 3.59%
Canarias Decide
 
 2.20%
PACMA
 
 1.23%
ASG
 
 0.56%
Others
 
 3.14%
Blank ballots
 
 1.83%
Seats
CCa–PNC
 
 30.00%
PSOE
 
 25.00%
PP
 
 20.00%
Podemos
 
 11.67%
NCa
 
 8.33%
ASG
 
 5.00%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP CC–PNC Podemos NCa ASG
% S % S % S % S % S % S
El Hierro 22.1 1 17.1 − 41.8 2 6.7 − 6.5 −
Fuerteventura 17.4 2 13.6 1 28.1 3 12.2 1 6.7 −
Gran Canaria 17.5 3 20.4 4 6.2 1 17.0 3 18.4 4
La Gomera 16.4 1 10.3 − 10.5 − 8.8 − 5.9 − 43.0 3
La Palma 24.6 2 24.7 3 30.3 3 6.5 − 2.8 −
Lanzarote 21.0 2 13.0 1 22.2 3 14.7 1 8.3 1
Tenerife 22.0 4 17.5 3 27.6 6 13.4 2 3.4 −
Total 19.9 15 18.6 12 18.2 18 14.5 7 10.2 5 0.6 3
Sources[23][24]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture
Nomination of Fernando Clavijo (CCa)
Ballot → 7 July 2015
Required majority → 31 out of 60 checkY
Yes
  • • CCa–PNC (18)
  • • PSOE (15)
  • • ASG (3)
36 / 60
No
  • • PP (12)
  • • Podemos (7)
  • • NCa (4)
23 / 60
Abstentions
0 / 60
Absentees
  • • NCa (1)
1 / 60
Sources[23][25]

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Within IUC.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Within Unidos.
  3. ^ Within Podemos.
  4. ^ a b Within CC.
  5. ^ a b c d Does not include non-resident citizens.
  6. ^ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Islas Canarias: La coalición CC-PSOE necesitará otros apoyos para gobernar". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ^ "Islas Canarias. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
  4. ^ "Triple empate en la recta final". La Opinión de Tenerife (in Spanish). 18 May 2015. Archived from the original on 20 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Estimación del voto al Parlamento de Canarias". La Opinión de Tenerife (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  6. ^ a b "CC gana, el PP sufre el mayor retroceso y entran con fuerza tres nuevos partidos". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. ^ "CANARIAS, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Instituto Perfiles". Electográfica (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  8. ^ "El PP se hunde y CC sería el más votado". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  9. ^ "Una encuesta prevé la victoria de CC y la caída del PP a 13 escaños". El Día.es (in Spanish). 21 April 2015.
  10. ^ "Podemos y C's se perfilan como dos nuevos grupos del Parlamento". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
  11. ^ a b "La mayoría absoluta para un pacto de dos partidos se mueve entre uno o dos escaños". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
  12. ^ "CANARIAS, Abril 2015. Sondeo Instituto Perfiles". Electográfica (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
  13. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias (Estudio nº 3069. Marzo-Abril 2015)". CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  14. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  15. ^ "Gobernar el Archipiélago entre dos partidos, casi imposible tras el 24-M". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 12 April 2015.
  16. ^ "CANARIAS, Abril 2015. Sondeo TSA". Electográfica (in Spanish). 12 April 2015.
  17. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  18. ^ "Islas Canarias: El binomio CC-PSOE aguanta resiste". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  19. ^ "Islas Canarias. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
  20. ^ "El pacto entre Coalición Canaria y el PP logra la mayoría para gobernar en 2015". La Provincia (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
  21. ^ "El pacto entre Coalición Canaria y el PP logra la mayoría para gobernar en 2015". La Provincia (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
  22. ^ "Encuesta Noviembre 2014". Hamalgama Métrica (in Spanish). 6 December 2014.
  23. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  24. ^ "CC, la fuerza con más escaños, el PP se hunde y el PSOE baja más". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 7 September 2014.
  25. ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  26. ^ "CC ganaría gracias al desplome del PP". Diario de Avisos (in Spanish). 2 June 2014.
  27. ^ "Un sondeo de CC refleja una victoria nacionalista, subida del PSOE y debacle del PP". Canarias7 (in Spanish). 7 December 2013. Archived from the original on 9 December 2013.
  28. ^ "PP y CC se mantienen como las fuerzas más votadas y empatan a 20 diputados". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 December 2013.
  29. ^ "Estimación de voto al Parlamento de Canarias". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 December 2013.
  30. ^ "Un sondeo del PSOE prevé que el PP canario perdería ocho escaños". RTVC (in Spanish). 23 February 2014.
  31. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  32. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 2 March 2015.
  33. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  34. ^ "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  35. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
Other
  1. ^ Statute (1982), arts. 13, 15 & 17.
  2. ^ LECC (2003), final prov. 1.
  3. ^ Statute (1982), art. 10; LECC (2003), art. 16 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 42).
  4. ^ Statute (1982), art. 17.
  5. ^ Decree 26/2015 (2015), art. 1.
  6. ^ Statute (1982), arts. 9–10; LECC (2003), art. 2 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3).
  7. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 75.
  8. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Archived from the original on 31 August 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  9. ^ Statute (1982), art. 9 & trans. prov. 1.
  10. ^ Statute (1982), trans. prov. 1; Decree 26/2015 (2015), art. 2.
  11. ^ LECC (2003), art. 21 & single add. prov. (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
  12. ^ LECC (2003), art. 18 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
  13. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
  14. ^ "El PP regional propone a Australia Navarro como candidata a la Presidencia de Canarias" (in Spanish). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Europa Press. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  15. ^ Lachica, Salvador (29 September 2014). "Clavijo acaba con el 'paulinato' y será candidato de CC en 2015". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  16. ^ "Patricia Hernández gana las primarias de Canarias y será la candidata de PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Santa Cruz de Tenerife. EFE. 19 October 2014. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  17. ^ "Nueva Canarias y XTF firman un acuerdo para ocupar el espacio de la izquierda social". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Europa Press. 15 May 2014. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  18. ^ "Nueva Canarias aspira a convertirse en la primera fuerza política en Gran Canaria". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. EFE. 6 March 2015. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  19. ^ "Nueva Canarias y Alternativa Democrática Gomera concurrirán juntos a las elecciones locales y autonómicas bajo las siglas de NC". Gomera Noticias (in Spanish). 8 April 2015. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  20. ^ Suárez, Iván (1 April 2015). "Noemí Santana será la candidata de Podemos al Gobierno de Canarias". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  21. ^ "Melisa Rodríguez, candidata de Ciudadanos (C's) al Gobierno de Canarias" (in Spanish). Santa Cruz de Tenerife: Europa Press. 18 March 2015. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  22. ^ "Casimiro Curbelo pide su baja en el PSOE". Canarias Ahora (in Spanish). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. 6 March 2015. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
  23. ^ a b c Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Canarias (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 April 2026.
  24. ^ a b "Elecciones al Parlamento de Canarias. Elecciones 2015" (in Spanish). Parliament of the Canary Islands. Retrieved 26 April 2026.
  25. ^ "Fernando Clavijo es investido nuevo presidente del Gobierno de Canarias" (in Spanish). RTVE. 7 July 2015. Retrieved 27 April 2026.

Bibliography

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