2004 Andalusian regional election
14 March 2004
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All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 6,052,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 4,518,545 (74.7%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A regional election was held in Andalusia on 14 March 2004 to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with the 2004 Spanish general election.
As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.[1][2]
Overview
Under the 1981 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[3] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[4]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).[5] The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 17 February 2004, setting the latest possible date for election day on 11 April 2004.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[6]
The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 20 January 2004 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 14 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 31 March.[7][8]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[9]
The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 90 and a maximum of 110 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 109. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[10] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[11]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[12]
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| 18 | Seville |
| 16 | Málaga |
| 15 | Cádiz |
| 13 | Córdoba, Granada |
| 12 | Jaén |
| 11 | Almería, Huelva |
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[13]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[14]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE–A | 52 | 52 | ||
| Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 46 | 46 | ||
| United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group | IULV–CA | 6 | 6 | ||
| Andalusian Parliamentary Group | PA | 3 | 3 | ||
| Mixed Group | PSA | 2[a] | 2 | ||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[18]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PSOE–A | List |
|
Manuel Chaves | Social democracy | 44.3% | 52 | [19] | ||
| PP | List
|
|
Teófila Martínez | Conservatism Christian democracy |
38.0% | 46 | [20] [21] | ||
| IULV–CA | List
|
|
Diego Valderas | Socialism Communism |
8.1% | 6 | [22] [23] [24] | ||
| PA | List
|
|
Antonio Ortega | Andalusian nationalism Social democracy |
7.4% | 5 | [25] | ||
| PSA | List
|
|
Pedro Pacheco | Andalusian nationalism Social democracy |
Did not contest | [17] [26] | |||
Former Labour minister in the first government of José María Aznar, Manuel Pimentel, abandoned the People's Party (PP) in March 2003 in protest over the Irak War crisis,[27][28][29] forming his own party (Andalusian Forum) to contest the regional election.[30][31][32]
Campaign
Debates
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present[b] S Surrogate[c] NI Not invited I Invited A Absent invitee | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE–A | PP | IULV–CA | PA | Audience | Ref. | |||
| 4 March | Canal Sur | Manuel Campo Vidal | P Chaves |
P Martínez |
P Valderas |
P Ortega |
17.9% (552,000) |
[33] [34] |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | IULV | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 regional election | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 74.7 | 50.4 61 |
31.8 37 |
7.5 6 |
6.2 5 |
0.9 0 |
18.6 |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1] | 14 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 48.2 56/59 |
34.4 40/43 |
7.1 4/7 |
6.5 5 |
– | 13.8 |
| Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2] | 14 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 47.5 57/59 |
32.8 37/40 |
8.8 7/8 |
6.6 4/5 |
– | 14.7 |
| Metra Seis/PA[p 3] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | ? 53/54 |
? 44 |
? 4 |
? 7/8 |
? 0 |
? |
| Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[p 4] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 44.0 54/55 |
37.5 46/47 |
7.2 4/5 |
5.7 2/3 |
– | 6.5 |
| Opina/El País[p 5][p 6] | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | ? | 47.0 56/59 |
36.5 42/46 |
7.0 4/6 |
6.0 3 |
– | 10.5 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Vocento[p 7][p 8] | 12–20 Feb 2004 | 3,613 | 67–68 | 47.1 54/56 |
36.7 46/47 |
6.9 4/5 |
7.3 3 |
– | 10.4 |
| CIS[p 9][p 10] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 75.2 | 47.1 55 |
36.1 42 |
8.1 8 |
6.8 4 |
0.2 0 |
11.0 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 11][p 12] | 14 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 42.0 50/51 |
39.8 49/51 |
? 5/6 |
? 3 |
? 0 |
2.2 |
| Opina/CEA[p 13][p 14] | 2–7 Feb 2004 | 3,200 | ? | 45.5 53/54 |
37.5 45/46 |
7.5 7 |
6.0 3 |
0.5 0 |
8.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15][p 16] | 2–5 Feb 2004 | 2,500 | ? | 44.9 54/55 |
37.7 47/48 |
7.4 4/5 |
5.6 2/3 |
– | 7.2 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 17][p 18] | 3–23 Dec 2003 | 3,200 | 72.6 | 45.2 | 37.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 8.1 |
| Metra Seis/PA[p 19] | 24 Nov 2003 | ? | ? | ? 53/54 |
? 44/45 |
? 5/6 |
? 4/6 |
? 0 |
? |
| IESA/CSIC[p 20][p 21] | 1–21 Nov 2003 | 3,700 | 70 | 46.7 | 37.2 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 9.5 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 22][p 23] | 22 Sep–2 Oct 2003 | 3,000 | ? | 42.8 50/51 |
39.5 49/50 |
8.5 6 |
5.5 2/3 |
0.6 0 |
3.3 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 24][p 25][p 26] | 1–19 Jul 2003 | 3,200 | 74.2 | 45.1 | 37.3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 7.8 |
| 2003 local elections | 25 May 2003 | N/a | 65.6 | 38.2 | 30.9 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 7.3 |
| Demoscopia/Grupo Joly[p 27][p 28] | 28 Feb 2003 | ? | ? | 47.9 | 34.7 | 7.7 | 8.2 | – | 13.2 |
| Opina/El País[p 29][p 30] | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | ? | 50.5 | 30.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | – | 20.5 |
| Sigma Dos/ABC[p 31] | 14–17 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 49.8 | 33.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | – | 16.1 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 32][p 33] | 3–12 Feb 2003 | 2,500 | ? | 43.2 51/52 |
39.8 48/49 |
6.9 5 |
6.6 4 |
1.1 0/1 |
3.4 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 34] | 31 Jan 2003 | 3,500 | ? | 46.9 | 34.9 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 12.0 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 35][p 36] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 | 3,884 | 70 | 47.9 | 35.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 12.7 |
| Inner/PSOE[p 37] | 10 Nov 2002 | 431 | ? | 51.6 | 39.1 | 7.6 | 1.7 | – | 12.5 |
| CIS[p 38][p 39][p 40][p 41] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 982 | 70.9 | 45.0 | 37.2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | – | 7.8 |
| Sigma Dos/Sur[p 42][p 43] | 28 Feb 2002 | ? | ? | 45.0 | 40.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | – | 4.3 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 44] | 28 Feb 2002 | ? | ? | 41.9 50 |
40.6 49/50 |
7.4 4/5 |
5.7 3/4 |
2.6 0 |
1.3 |
| Opina/El País[p 45][p 46] | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | ? | 47.3 | 35.0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 12.3 |
| PSOE[p 47] | 31 Jan–5 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | ? | 45.7 | 35.5 | 8.6 | 7.9 | – | 10.2 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 48][p 49] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 | 3,696 | ? | 46.8 | 35.8 | 8.9 | 7.1 | – | 11.0 |
| Opina/CEA[p 50][p 51] | 15–27 Oct 2001 | 3,200 | ? | 44.2 52/53 |
39.5 47/48 |
7.4 5/6 |
6.9 3/4 |
– | 4.7 |
| PSOE[p 52] | 7–15 Jun 2001 | 2,045 | ? | 50.9 | 34.1 | – | – | – | 16.8 |
| Sigma Dos[p 31][p 53] | 28 Feb 2001 | ? | ? | 43.2 | 40.3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | – | 2.9 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 54][p 55] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 | 3,645 | ? | 46.6 | 35.7 | 9.4 | 7.8 | – | 10.9 |
| 2000 regional election | 12 Mar 2000 | N/a | 68.7 | 44.3 52 |
38.0 46 |
8.1 6 |
7.4 5 |
– | 6.3 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Lead | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 regional election[d] | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 37.9 | 24.0 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | N/a | 24.2 | 13.9 |
| CIS[p 9] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 37.8 | 17.6 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 28.6 | 5.9 | 20.2 |
| CADPEA/UGR[p 17] | 3–23 Dec 2003 | 3,200 | 36.6 | 18.8 | – | – | – | 32.3 | – | 17.8 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 20] | 1–21 Nov 2003 | 3,700 | 32.3 | 24.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | – | 22.8 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Idea Asesores/PP[p 32] | 3–12 Feb 2003 | 2,500 | 25.3 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 35.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 35] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 | 3,884 | 35.3 | 22.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | – | 23.9 | 5.3 | 13.1 |
| CIS[p 38] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 982 | 29.3 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | – | 34.3 | 9.1 | 13.9 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 35] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 | 3,696 | 32.2 | 23.7 | 6.3 | 4.9 | – | 24.9 | 5.1 | 8.5 |
| Opina/CEA[p 51] | 15–27 Oct 2001 | 3,200 | 28.2 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | – | – | – | 7.2 |
| Demoscopia/El País[p 56][p 57] | 15–20 Feb 2001 | 1,205 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | – | – | – | 1.0 |
| IESA/CSIC[p 35] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 | 3,645 | 31.8 | 23.4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | – | 26.0 | 5.2 | 8.4 |
| 2000 regional election[d] | 12 Mar 2000 | N/a | 30.6 | 26.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | – | N/a | 30.2 | 4.2 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Other/ None |
Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/El País[p 6] | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 39.2 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 37.7 | 15.7 |
| CIS[p 9] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 44.4 | 20.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 24.8 | 24.0 |
| Opina/El País[p 30] | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | 35.8 | 19.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 35.2 | 16.8 |
| Opina/El País[p 46] | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | 34.5 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 35.7 | 13.2 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Other/ None |
Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/El País[p 6] | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 73.6 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 18.6 | 66.1 |
| CIS[p 9] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 72.9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | – | 0.1 | 21.0 | 67.5 |
| Inner/PSOE[p 58] | 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 | 1,200 | 65.1 | 14.6 | – | – | – | 1.8 | 18.5 | 50.5 |
| Opina/El País[p 30] | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | 63.6 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 29.7 | 58.2 |
| Opina/El País[p 46] | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | 53.5 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 33.2 | 41.7 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves PSOE–A |
Martínez PP |
Valderas IULV |
Ortega PA |
Pacheco PSA | ||||||
| Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[p 4] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | 45.8 | 22.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 23.7 |
| Opina/El País[p 6] | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 38.0 | 22.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | – | 2.2 | 30.9 | 15.5 |
| CIS[p 9] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 46.7 | 19.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 22.7 | 27.6 |
| Inner/PSOE[p 58] | 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 | 1,200 | 55.9 | 32.7 | – | – | – | 7.9 | 3.5 | 23.2 |
Results
Overall
![]() | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 2,260,545 | 50.36 | +6.04 | 61 | +9 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 1,426,774 | 31.78 | −6.24 | 37 | −9 | |
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 337,030 | 7.51 | −0.60 | 6 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Party (PA) | 276,674 | 6.16 | −1.27 | 5 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Forum (FA) | 53,288 | 1.19 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA) | 42,219 | 0.94 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 5,670 | 0.13 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA) | 5,065 | 0.11 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusia Assembly (A) | 4,544 | 0.10 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS)1 | 4,437 | 0.10 | +0.07 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE) | 3,321 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Republican Left (IR) | 3,130 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) | 1,642 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ) | 1,334 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP) | 525 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Union (UN) | 523 | 0.01 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 62,451 | 1.39 | +0.10 | |||
| Total | 4,489,172 | 109 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 4,489,172 | 99.35 | +0.01 | |||
| Invalid votes | 28,658 | 0.65 | −0.01 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 4,518,545 | 74.66 | +5.95 | |||
| Abstentions | 1,533,467 | 25.34 | −5.95 | |||
| Registered voters | 6,052,012 | |||||
| Sources[14][35] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PSOE–A | PP | IULV–CA | PA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| Almería | 46.1 | 6 | 42.0 | 5 | 3.8 | − | 4.4 | − |
| Cádiz | 47.8 | 8 | 32.0 | 5 | 6.6 | 1 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Córdoba | 45.9 | 7 | 30.8 | 4 | 11.2 | 1 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Granada | 49.0 | 7 | 35.4 | 5 | 7.1 | 1 | 4.3 | − |
| Huelva | 52.9 | 7 | 28.8 | 3 | 7.3 | − | 8.0 | 1 |
| Jaén | 53.1 | 7 | 32.4 | 4 | 6.7 | 1 | 5.7 | − |
| Málaga | 47.5 | 8 | 34.6 | 6 | 7.6 | 1 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Seville | 55.9 | 11 | 26.2 | 5 | 7.9 | 1 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Total | 50.4 | 61 | 31.8 | 37 | 7.5 | 6 | 6.2 | 5 |
| Sources[14][35] | ||||||||
Aftermath
Government formation
| Investiture Nomination of Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A) | ||
| Ballot → | 21 April 2004 | |
|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 55 out of 109 | |
Yes
|
61 / 109
| |
No
|
36 / 109
| |
Abstentions
|
11 / 109
| |
Absentees
|
1 / 109
| |
| Sources[14] | ||
Notes
References
Opinion poll sources
- ^ "El PP puede perder de tres a seis diputados". estupidafregona.net (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
- ^ "Elecciones Generales y de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Sondeo de Ipsos-EcoConsulting para RTVE - Domingo 14 de Marzo". RTVE (in Spanish). 14 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 March 2004.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ "Rojas Marcos llama a "tirarse a la calle" si el PSOE logra la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
- ^ a b "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE recuperará en el Parlamento andaluz la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
- ^ a b c d "Elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía. Intención de voto. Marzo de 2004" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y podría gobernar con el apoyo del PA o IU". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE sería el partido más votado en todas las provincias, excepto en Almería". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
- ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones generales y autonómicas de Andalucía, 2004 (Estudio nº 2555. Enero-Febrero 2004)". CIS (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
- ^ "La mayoría absoluta pende de un hilo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
- ^ "Un sondeo del PP lo sitúa a 2,2 puntos del PSOE en las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
- ^ "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
- ^ "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
- ^ "Una encuesta encargada por los empresarios sitúa al PSOE a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
- ^ "Chaves roza de nuevo la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
- ^ "Chaves ganaría las elecciones andaluzas con más de 7 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
- ^ a b "El PSOE mantiene su ventaja de ocho puntos sobre el PP para las elecciones autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
- ^ "El PSOE aventaja al PP en más de ocho puntos, según el Estudio de Opinión Pública de Andalucía". ABC Córdoba (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
- ^ "Dos sondeos dan al PSOE el mejor resultado en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 24 November 2003.
- ^ a b "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2003 (Enero, 2004)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 19 January 2004.
- ^ "Una encuesta da una ventaja de 9,5 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2004.
- ^ "Un sondeo del PP le otorga los mismos escaños que al PSOE en las autonómicas". ABC (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
- ^ "Un sondeo encargado por el PP da una ventaja de 3,3 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE superaría en 8 puntos al PP si las autonómicas fuesen hoy". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
- ^ "El PP recorta en 4 puntos la distancia al PSOE, que seguiría ganando las elecciones". ABC (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
- ^ "La Encuesta de Opinión de Andalucía sitúa al PSOE 8 puntos sobre el PP en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
- ^ "Tres sondeos coinciden en la mayoría absoluta del PSOE". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
- ^ "Todas las encuestas del 28-F coinciden en dar mayoría absoluta al PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE abre una brecha de 20 puntos con el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
- ^ a b c "Encuesta febrero 2003. Andalucía" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
- ^ a b "El PSOE ganaría por mayoría absoluta y el PP sufriría un retroceso en las autonómicas". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
- ^ a b "Una encuesta del PP sitúa a su partido a sólo 3,4 puntos de los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
- ^ "El PP admite que su principal déficit para ganar a los socialistas está en Sevilla". ABC (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas". ABC (in Spanish). 1 February 2003.
- ^ a b c d "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2002 (Diciembre, 2002)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 21 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 19 March 2015.
- ^ "El barométro del IESA da una ventaja de 12,7 puntos al PSOE sobre el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 22 February 2003.
- ^ "Un estudio electoral da al PSOE 12,5 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 10 November 2002.
- ^ a b "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
- ^ "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
- ^ "El PSOE volvería a ganar las autonómicas con 7,8 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
- ^ "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
- ^ "El PSOE, satisfecho por su primer puesto en los sondeos y el PP, por acortar distancia". ABC (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
- ^ "Todas las encuestas dan vencedor al PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
- ^ "Un sondeo del PP augura un empate a escaños con el PSOE en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
- ^ "El PSOE aventaja en 12,3 puntos al PP en intención directa de voto en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
- ^ a b c "Informe. Intención de voto Andalucía. Febrero 2002" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2002. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
- ^ "Un sondeo del PSOE andaluz señala una ventaja de 10 puntos sobre el PP en intención de voto". El País (in Spanish). 9 February 2002.
- ^ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2001 (Noviembre-Diciembre, 2001)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 22 February 2002.
- ^ "Un sondeo del IESA da 11 puntos de ventaja al PSOE sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 23 February 2002.
- ^ "Una encuesta de la CEA refleja la pérdida de dos escaños del PSOE en Sevilla y Huelva". ABC (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
- ^ a b "Un sondeo de la CEA otorga al PSOE una nueva victoria electoral". El País (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
- ^ "El PSOE dice que aventaja al PP en 16,8 puntos, según su encuesta". ABC (in Spanish). 1 July 2001.
- ^ "Mayoría absoluta para el PSOE en Andalucía, según un sondeo de Sigma 2 para ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE saca 11 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo del IESA". El País (in Spanish). 25 February 2001.
- ^ "El 70,7 por ciento de los andaluces aprueba el trabajo de la Junta, según el Instituto de Estudios de la Sociedad Andaluza". ABC (in Spanish). 25 February 2003.
- ^ "El PSOE baja 11,5 puntos en intención de voto en Andalucía y supera sólo en uno al PP". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2001.
- ^ "El PSOE quita importancia al sondeo que le sitúa sólo un punto por encima del PP". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2001.
- ^ a b "El 65,1% cree que Chaves ganará las elecciones, frente a un 14,6% que opina que Teófila Martínez". El País (in Spanish). 15 November 2003.
Other
- ^ Lucio, Lourdes (15 March 2004). "Chaves logra mayoría absoluta y hunde al PP". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
- ^ Barbero, Luis; Belausteguigoitia, Santiago (15 March 2004). "El Partido Popular se desmorona en Andalucía y logra el peor resultado de lo últimos 10 años". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
- ^ Statute (1981), arts. 25, 30–31 & 33.
- ^ LEAn (1986), final prov. 1.
- ^ Statute (1981), art. 26; LEAn (1986), arts. 14–15 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 42).
- ^ LGAAn (1983), arts. 14 & 55–56 (am. by LGAAn (1994), art. 1).
- ^ Decree 1/2004 (2004), arts. 1–2 & 5.
- ^ Lucio, Lourdes (10 January 2004). "Chaves pacta con Aznar simultanear el 14 de marzo las elecciones andaluzas y generales". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
- ^ Statute (1981), arts. 26 & 28; LEAn (1986), art. 2 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3).
- ^ Statute (1981), arts. 26 & 28; LEAn (1986), arts. 16–18.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ Decree 1/2004 (2004), art. 3.
- ^ LEAn (1986), art. 19 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
- ^ a b c d Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (desde 1982)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 October 2025.
- ^ Pedrote, Isabel (31 January 2001). "Pacheco se va al grupo mixto sin 'revancha' ni ánimo de desestabilizar". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ "Pacheco será el presidente del grupo mixto y Chamorro hará de portavoz". El País (in Spanish). Seville. 1 September 2001. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ a b Pedrote, Isabel (15 September 2001). "El ingreso de Pedro Pacheco en el nuevo PSA consuma la división formal del andalucismo". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ LEAn (1986), arts. 22–23 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
- ^ Lucio, Lourdes (4 December 2000). "Chaves logra un apoyo del 79% a una ejecutiva renovada y con más mujeres que hombres". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 8 April 2026.
- ^ Barbero, Luis; García, Alejandro Víctor (22 September 2002). "El PP acude a una fórmula inédita para que el congreso 'designe' a Martínez candidata a la Junta". El País (in Spanish). Granada. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
- ^ Barbero, Luis; García, Alejandro Víctor (22 September 2002). "Teófila Martínez, reelegida presidenta del PP andaluz". El País (in Spanish). Granada. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
- ^ Pedrote, Isabel (10 October 2000). "La cúpula de IU proclama la victoria de Valderas mientras Caballero denuncia un proceso "trucado"". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Sánchez, María Esperanza (15 October 2000). "Dentro del sistema". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Pedrote, Isabel (15 December 2003). "Valderas es reelegido coordinador de IU con una leve subida al conseguir el 59% de apoyos". El País (in Spanish). Matalascañas. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Jiménez Titos, Francisco (24 March 2001). "Los andalucistas ratifican hoy a Ortega como candidato". El País (in Spanish). Granada. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Román, Francisco José (14 December 2003). "El PSA elige a Pacheco como su candidato autonómico". El País (in Spanish). Cádiz. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ "El ex ministro Manuel Pimentel deja el PP por su apoyo a la "guerra ilícita"". El País (in Spanish). Seville. 24 March 2003. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ "Una despedida que se ha fraguado en los tres últimos años". El País (in Spanish). Seville. 25 March 2003. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Barbero, Luis (25 March 2003). "Los 'efectos colaterales' en el PP". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Lucio, Lourdes (17 June 2003). "Pimentel da el primer paso para la creación de un partido de centro". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Pedrote, Isabel (7 October 2003). "El foro de Pimentel podría constituirse en partido el próximo mes de diciembre si "aporta ideas nuevas"". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ Narváez, Diego (21 December 2003). "Pimentel se presentará por Córdoba a las elecciones con un partido "atípico" y andalucista". El País (in Spanish). Málaga. Retrieved 28 April 2026.
- ^ "El debate de los candidatos a la Junta andaluza será el 4 de marzo". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 11 February 2004. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
- ^ "Los medios de comunicación dan a Teófila una ajustada victoria". ABC (in Spanish). 6 March 2004. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
- ^ a b "Resolución de 26 de marzo de 2004, de la Presidencia de la Junta Electoral de Andalucía, por la que se hacen públicos los resultados generales y por circunscripciones, y relación de diputados proclamados electos en las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía celebradas el día 14 de marzo de 2004" (PDF). Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish) (62): 7750–7753. 30 March 2004. ISSN 2253-802X. Retrieved 7 April 2026.
Bibliography
- Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía (Organic Law 6/1981). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. BOE-A-1982-633. Retrieved 14 March 2026.
- Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma (Law 6/1983). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 21 July 1983. BOE-A-1983-23960. Retrieved 5 April 2026.
- Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 19 June 1985 [version as of 29 November 2003]. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 19 October 2025.
- Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 1/1986). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 2 January 1986 [version as of 31 December 2003]. BOE-A-1986-2788. Retrieved 19 October 2025.
- Ley 6/1994, de 18 de mayo, de Modificación de la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma, y la Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 6/1994). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 18 May 1994. BOE-A-1994-14602. Retrieved 14 March 2026.
- Decreto del Presidente 1/2004, de 19 de enero, de disolución del Parlamento de Andalucía y de convocatoria de elecciones (PDF) (Decree 1/2004). Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish). 19 January 2004. Retrieved 14 March 2026.
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